The U.S. has never defeated a Tier I nation with the U.S. is 0-54 (give or take) all time. They have certainly had their chances in the past. Last year Ireland was there for the taking but the Eagles couldn't finish and eventually lost by three points. There have been other instances in which they have also come close. However, rarely, if ever, have their gone into a Tier I match like they are going into against Scotland tomorrow. First, they are playing at home and in the heat and humidity of Houston. That could be a major factor for a Scotland side that is not accustomed to the conditions. Second, despite the absence of Samu Manoa the Eagles have number of players that play regularly in the top leagues in Europe. Not only that but those players have also played together for a number of years now. Lastly, they face a Scotland team that is in transition to a new coach and has not played well over the last few years. Put it all together and the U.S. has a chance of causing the upset.
What will it take to cause the upset? Take the jump to have a look.
The Squad
As mentioned the Eagles will be without Samu Manoa due to a combination of fatigue and his family just adding another child. Since rejoining the team on a full-time basis Manoa has been the best player on the squad, especially defensively where he has pounded the opposition. His loss will be felt. That said, the lock pairing the Eagles will use are no slouches. Lou Stanfill and Hayden Smith have a lot of experience and have both been playing well over the last year. There is no reason they can't hold their own against Scotland.
The two points of interest for the Eagles in terms of selection prior to the match were in the props and in the halfbacks. The absence of Adam Siddall and Toby L'Estrange has caused a vacuum at fly-half that will be filled by Shalom Suniula. It was thought that Folau Niua might be the starter considering that Suniula is also the only back-up option at scrumhalf if Mike Petri were to go down but Suniula proved himself against Uruguay and will get his chance. Petri has a lot to prove this series. He wasn't as good as he should have been against Uruguay, especially in his kicking. He's going to go up against one of the best scrumhalfs in rugby in Greig Laidlaw so he needs to excel.
In the props the starting duo will be Oliver Kilifi and Eric Fry. While playing for the U.S. Fry has come under a bit of criticism for his scrummaging. However, he was selected to the RFU Championship Dream Team this last season with London Scottish so he has the abilities. Kilifi is the best scrummager on the team and is presumably in there to help eliminate penalties that have been so common for the Eagles in previous matches. The U.S. will want to keep the penalty count low and the scrums clean to avoid Scotland winding down the clock and earning easy points.
The rest of the line-up is straightforward. Phil Thiel will be the hooker while Todd Clever, Scott LaValla, and Cam Dolan will once again make the back-row. Andrew Suniula and Seamus Kelly will pair in the centers, Chris Wyles will be fullback, and Luke Hume and Blaine Scully will be the wings.
Of those on the overall roster only Danny Barrett and Chad London can make their test debuts.
Forwards: Olive Kilifi, Phil Thiel, Eric Fry, Lou Stanfill, Hayden Smith, Todd Clever, Scott LaValla, Cam Dolan
Backs: Mike Petri, Shalom Suniula, Luke Hume, Andrew Suniula, Seamus Kelly, Blaine Scully, Chris Wyles
Bench: Tom Coolican, Nick Wallace, Titi Lamositele, Tai Tuisamoa, Danny Barrett, Folau Niua, Chad London, Tim Maupin
The Opposition
New Scotland head coach Vern Cotter has gone with a mixed line-up for his first match in charge. The strength of the side lies in their back three and in their locks. Two British & Irish Lions in Sean Maitland and Stuart Hogg should lead a quality attack that also features Tim Visser and anchored by scrumhalf Greig Laidlaw. These are players that know how to get it done and should make life very difficult for the Eagles back three. In the locks Richie Gray and Jim Hamilton form a very imposing duo that no longer have to worry about Samu Manoa. They could very well neutralize the lineout, one of the Eagles strengths.
There is some inexperience on the team. Prop Gordon Reid, flanker Blair Cowan, and fly-half Finn Russell are all making their debuts. All have plenty of experience playing in Scotland and England but all three will probably be in for an awakening at the international level. Scotland are missing some key players as a result of their squad being split into two for their additional matches in Argentina and South Africa.
Forwards: Gordon Reid (Glasgow, 0 caps), Scott Lawson (Newcastle, 43 caps), Geoff Cross (London Irish, 28 caps), Richie Gray (Castres, 37 caps), Jim Hamilton (Saracens, 55 caps), Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan, 38 caps), Blair Cowan (London Irish, 0 caps), Johnnie Beattie (Montpellier, 30 caps)
Backs: Greig Laidlaw (Gloucester, 29 caps), Finn Russell (Glasgow, 0 caps), Tim Visser (Edinburgh, 12 caps), Duncan Taylor (Saracens, 10 caps), Sean Lamont (Glasgow, 86 caps), Sean Maitland (Glasgow, 9 caps), Stuart Hogg (Glasgow, 20 caps)
Bench: Pat MacArthur (Glasgow, 4 caps), Alex Allan (Glasgow, 0 caps), Moray Low (Exeter, 26 caps), Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh, 4 caps), Kieran Low (London Irish, 1 cap), Grayson Hart (Edinburgh, 0 cap), Ruaridh Jackson (London Wasps, 23 caps), Max Evans (Castres, 42 caps)
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The History
The U.S. and Scotland have played three times in their history. Scotland beat the U.S. in the 2003 World Cup 39-15 and on their tour of Great Britain in 2000 53-6.
Keys to the Match
Kicking: Like last year against Ireland this year's match could easily come down to kicking. With Siddall out of the squad and Niua on the bench Chris Wyles will take over the kicking duties. He has improved a lot over the last few years but isn't an every day kicker. He'll need to be perfect tomorrow. Scotland has a number of kickers on their team.
Penalties: You can't kick for points unless you get penalties. Scotland isn't a team that wants to get out and run, despite their solid back options, they want to wear you down and earn penalties. The U.S. can't afford to make the silly mistakes they have in the past. All it takes is two or three and that could be the game. At the same time, the U.S. needs to use the conditions to force Scotland into committing mental mistakes. Say they commit three penalties then the U.S. could suddenly be up 9-0.
Diplomacy: The Eagles felt that they were a little hard done by the referee against Uruguay in that they let Uruguay get away with tricks in the scrum. However, the way the U.S. demonstrated their feelings towards the ref didn't do them any favors. Some referees have a tendency to want to "teach" Tier II nations, especially when playing at Tier I nation. The U.S. can't let that get to them if it happens.
Be Physical: If the U.S. has been developing a style over the last few years it's their willingness to be incredibly physical and hammer their opponents as much as they can. They have put out big bruisers but so have Scotland. Scotland have faced a lot in their time but if they aren't ready they can be caught out.
Scrum: We talk about it every time because it's a problem for the Eagles. They need to make sure they don't commit errors in the scrum and that they compete well. The scrum looked much better last fall before falling apart at times against Uruguay. Scotland don't have the best scrum in the world but still the U.S. will have to be better.
Heat & Humidity: The U.S. will feel the heat and humidity of Houston but Scotland are going to feel it even more. If Scotland want to avoid the upset they will have to do their best to avoid wilting early.
Key Match-ups
Greig Laidlaw vs. Mike Petri: This could be the battle that wins the game. Laidlaw is extremely experienced and can take over a game himself. Petri has struggled and will have to be at the top of his game.
Tim Visser, Sean Maitland, & Stuart Hogg vs. Luke Hume, Blaine Scully, & Chris Wyles: Usually the back three is a strength for the U.S. but they are coming up against some very good players. The U.S. will need to make sure their kicking is accurate and that they play solid defense all while taking their opportunities on offense.
Richie Gray & Jim Hamilton vs. Lou Stanfill & Hayden Smith: The lineout is another area in which the U.S. usually have an advance but will face arguably Scotland's best players. The U.S. needs to ensure they win all their set pieces.
The Takeaway
Make no mistake, although this is the Eagles best opportunity to earn a Tier I win in a long time Scotland are still favorites. They have a fully professional squad with years of experience playing at the highest level. The U.S. has some players doing that but they also have players that just got out of college (okay, okay in fairness to Seamus Kelly he is really good). It is going to take the U.S. playing very well to get the job done. The difference in this match is that even if they played their best in previous matches against Tier I nations they probably were still underdogs. This time it's not so clear. If Scotland come out poorly they could find themselves behind permanently. The U.S. has consistently gotten up for big games in the last few years and by all accounts they will do so tomorrow.