In what has been the most exciting Women's World Cup to date no team has clinched a spot in the semi-finals heading into the final. In fact, seven teams-more than half the field--have a chance at the semi-finals. The U.S. are one of those teams thanks to their win over Kazakhstan and Ireland's shock win over New Zealand. Among those seven teams with a chance the U.S. has the worst odds. Not only do they only have six points but they have to face the Black Ferns, the winner of the last four tournaments.
If the U.S. want to advance to the semi-finals they need to not only gain the maximum points but also need help elsewhere. England and Canada each have ten points and currently sit in a semi-final spot but they play each other. France also have ten points and face an easier match against Wales. Ireland are almost guaranteed to advance unless they make a major mistake against Kazakhstan. All in all the Eagles face an uphill battle but not an impossible one.
Take the jump to read more.
The Team
Head coach Pete Steinberg has essentially returning his same team that played Ireland a week ago. That team played well against the team that famously beat their next opponent. There are only two overall changes to that team with Sarah Chobot coming in from Jamie Burke and Sylvia Braaten coming in for Emilie Bydwell, who is now on the bench after starting twice. Overall four players keep their places from Kazakhstan--Lynelle Kugler, Kate Daley, Bui Baravilala, and Vanesha McGee. All four have played in all three matches. Baravilala will switch positions from fullback to outside center.
Overall the team should have a lot of power. The forwards did strong work against Ireland and with the exception of the maul did reasonably well in set pieces. The backs have a lot of skill but will be tested against New Zealand. It will be interesting to see if they have a chance of breaking out. The most crucial aspect of the team is in the halfbacks where Jossy Tseng and Kimber Rozier did very well against Ireland.
Forwards: Sarah Chobot, Katy Augustyn, Hope Rogers, Carmen Farmer, Sarah Walsh, Jillion Potter, Lynelle Kugler, Kate Daley (C)
Backs: Jossy Tseng, Kimber Rozier, Sadie Anderson, Sylvia Braaten, Bui Baravilala, Vanesha McGee, Meya Bizer
Bench: Kitt Wagner, Jamie Burke, Sarah Wilson, Sharon Blaney, Shaina Turley, Emilie Bydwell, Nathalie Marchino
The Opponents
The Black Ferns have made a few changes to their team from their loss to Ireland. In total they've changed five players, including both of their props. They had a disappointing match against Ireland but don't be fooled, they are still the best team in the world. From top to bottom they have players with a lot of skill. They are powerful in terms of speed in the backs and power in the forwards.
Forwards: Ruth McKay, Fiao'o Fa'amausili (C), Stephanie Te Ohaere-Fox, Eloise Blackwell, Rawinia Everitt, Linda Itunu, Justine Lavea, Casey Robertson
Backs: Emma Jensen, Kelly Brazier, Renee Wickliffe, Amiria Rule, Huriana Manuel, Claire Richardson, Selica Winiata
Bench: Kathleen Wilton, Aleisha Nelson, Sanita Levave, Aroha Savage, Kendra Cocksedge, Honey Hireme, Shakira Baker
Keys to the Match
No Penalties: The U.S. have to limit the Black Ferns points and it begins with penalties. Like against Ireland any mistake will be punished by strong kicking. The U.S. haven't been terribly clean at the breakdown this tournament and will have to save their best for last.
Kicking: Along with not giving up penalties the U.S. kicking needs to be spot on. It hasn't this tournament and it's cost them points.
Score: It took awhile for the Eagles to get going against Kazakhstan and they left points on the board against Ireland. They can't do that against New Zealand. They need every point possible if they are going to take maximum points.
The Takeaway
The Eagles have nothing left to lose. They aren't expected to win and aren't expected to make the semi-finals. They have no reason not to go out there an leave it all on the line. The Black Ferns have the expectation to win and now that they've lost once in the tournament the pressure is on them to win. Put it all together and it should make from an exciting match.