Prop: There isn't any reason to suspect that the props will be anyone other than Eric Fry and Shawn Pittman. Both of been the starters for over the last year and are the most experienced players on the roster. Nick Wallace, Phil Thiel, and Zach Fenoglio will all be looked at as options. Wallace in particular has done well when given his opportunity but he is still very green and it would hard to image him thrown into such an important match as a starter. Thiel and Fenoglion would be good options off the bench.
Take the jump to read more.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on the props during the series given the changes to the scrum laws. U.S. scrum coach Derek Dowling has been instrumental in making the changes at the IRB so hopefully he can help Fry and Pittman get up to speed. It will be interesting to see whether the new laws actually help the props.
Hooker: Again, it's a pretty straightforward decision for Tolkin. Biller has been the first choice since the last World Cup and will continue to be since no one has stepped up to challenge him. The back-up options to Biller include both Thiel and Fenoglio.
Lock: Here is where things get a big more tricky. Depending on what coach Tolkin elects to do in the back-row it could have in impact on the locks. Both Samu Manoa and Scott LaValla can play lock. Both would likely replace Brian Doyle as Lou Stanfill is one of the automatic starters on the squad. Graham Harriman is in camp but at this point depth at the position and in back-row will keep him out. The most likely scenario has Manoa and LaValla both starting in the back-row while Doyle starts with Stanfill in the locks. If either Doyle or Stanfill have to come off another back-row player will come on and Manoa or LaValla will slide over.
Back-row: The back-row put out against Ireland was arguably the strongest in the history of the U.S. program and with all three players available there is no reason why Manoa, LaValla, and Clever won't start. The bigger question is who backs them up. With John Quill out the primary back-up role belongs to Peter Dahl. Cam Dolan is in camp as well and will also likely make the bench.
Scrumhalf: Mike Petri and Robbie Shaw have traded off starts over the last year with each player have strong and poor matches. Shaw didn't have the greatest match against Canada in May last year and that could hurt him. Petri has been the go to guy in big matches as of late and will likely start. That said, we wouldn't be surprised if it was Shaw. Either way, the U.S. has two good options. Shaun Davies is back in camp but it's more likely they are looking to keep him up to speed for the ARC and the November tests. He could also be an emergency option in the backs.
Fly-half: Toby L'Estrange has the backing of the coaching staff and will start on Saturday. He has had some shaky moments this summer after a great November but much of that has been chalked up to the carousel of players used this summer. We don't by that completely but he is still the best option at the moment. Adam Siddall has been ruled out with injury. Roland Suniula can play the position just as he did in the World Cup but he spent the last year playing center. Folau Niua is in camp and could make the gameday roster but he is more an experiment at the moment.
Center: Paul Emerick's retirement has left a hole in the center position. Andrew Suniula will start at inside center but the U.S. still has to determine their long-term option at outside center. Seamus Kelly got several starts at the position this summer and grew with every game. However, he is still young and to put him into World Cup qualifying with only a few caps is a bit of a risk. Siddall and James Paterson are out with injury and unavailable. The other options at the position include Roland Suniula, who mostly plays insider center with his club, and Chris Wyles and Blaine Scully. Both could fill in and are valuable, but both are also natural fullbacks. Chris Chapman is also in camp but is probably more of a long-term look. He can also play fullback. We think that Kelly has done enough to earn the nod and will start on Saturday.
Wing: Any time Taku Ngwenya's name appears on a squad list he has to start. The only other true win on the roster is Luke Hume. Both will start against Canada barring some sort of injury. Both will probably play the whole match as well.
Fullback: Another position that could be affected by what Tolkin chooses to do at another position. Chris Wyles is a no-brainer to start but the question is whether you move him to center to create room for Blaine Scully or vice versa. Scully has probably earned more time but at this point it has to be Wyles with Scully coming off the bench.
Bench: Tolkin took a look at a lot of players this last week--31 in all. Some of the players are definite names for the future, such as Titi Lamositele, while others are in genuine consideration. But his choices on the bench are limited. In the backs there are three obvious choices in Shaw, Roland Suniula, and Scully. Shaw is too valuable of an option at an important position. Suniula can slide in at fly-half or in the centers while Scully can play center, wing, or fullback.
The forwards get more difficult. Peter Dahl is the most straightforward choice. Cam Dolan is also a good choice considering he can play in the back-row or lock. The first-row has struggled recently so its easy to see Tolkin keeping his options open with Wallace, Thiel, and Fenoglio. With the depth on the field that can switch to lock a player like Graham Harriman will be left out.
Predicted Line-up:
1. Eric Fry
2. Chris Biller
3. Shawn Pittman
4. Brian Doyle
5. Lou Stanfill
6. Samu Manoa
7. Scott LaValla
8. Todd Clever
9. Mike Petri
10. Toby L'Estrange
11. Luke Hume
12. Andrew Suniula
13. Seamus Kelly
14. Taku Ngwenya
15. Chris Wyles
16. Nick Wallace
17. Phil Thiel
18. Zach Fenoglio
19. Peter Dahl
20. Cam Dolan
21. Robbie Shaw
22. Roland Suniula
23. Blaine Scully