The Eagles were happy to take the Shield in the Gold Coast after some lackluster play throughout the tournament but if they want to move from a bottom-table team to mid-table team by the end of the season they are going to need to pick up points this weekend in Dubai. Relegation isn't as much of a concern for the team not that the IRB will directly relegate one team rather than have a playoff (Spain have degraded their program and will almost certainly be the ones to be relegated). But this is about building for 2016. Head coach Matt Hawkins has made moves to gear the team toward the Olympics by emphasizing training at the Olympic Training Center and having more development tours, but time is rapidly running out for the team to show that they can compete. This weekend in Dubai and next week in South Africa the team must pick up series points.
Take the jump to read more.
The Team
Eight players remain from the Gold Coast. Of the changes, veteran Andrew Durutalo returns to the team after some time away. His presence has allowed Hawkins to move strictly to a coach role. Nu'u Punimata was the most consistent player for the Falcons at the NACRA 7s and the Coral Coast 7s and that has led to his selection for Dubai. The other newcomers include first time caps Zac Mizell and Pono Haitsuka. Mizell had an outstanding career for Arkansas State while Haitsuka has been the revelation of the year. The addition of Durutalo should have the most impact on the team. He's a great runner, good passer, and gives defense's problems.
Of the eight players staying the leadership core of Nick Edwards, Zack Test, Brett Thompson, and Folau Niua all return. Niua is the only player on the roster to have played with the Eagles XV's team on their tour of Europe. Edwards, Test, and Thompson have been some of the Eagles most consistent players over the last year and half. That said, they will need to find another gear.
Miles Craigwell is back with the team. He did a lot of good things in the Gold Coast as well as the Coral Coast. It wouldn't be surprising to see him start on a regular basis. Other players returning from the Gold Coast inluce Pat Blair and Steve Tomasin.
The player with the most to prove in Dubai is Carlin Isles. His pace is legendary but he has reached the point where pace along won't be enough to keep him on the team in the long term. He was sent on the Falcons tour to work on his defense and to become a better overall player. He improved in some regards but was also left wanting in others. Former head coach Alex Magleby used to talk about players reaching one platform and then moving on to another. Isles is that point where he needs to find another level to his game.
Overall, the team has more balance than it had in the Gold Coast. The Durutalo addition will help immensely. The core group of Edwards, Durutalo, Test, Thompson, Niua is very solid. They are all terrific players that can defend and score tries. But it will be up to the players around them to play at the same level. Depth is vital in sevens. If players 6-12 are able to step up than the U.S. should have a good tournament.
Squad: Carlin Isles, Nick Edwards, Andrew Durutalo, Nu'u Punimata, Zack Test, Brett Thompson, Folau Niua, Pat Blair, Pono Haitsuka, Zac Mizell, Steve Tomasin, Miles Craigwell
The Opponents
Fiji (2:16 a.m. et (Friday)/11:16 p.m. pt (Thursday)): Fiji took the Plate at the Gold Coast and like the U.S. they've only made four changes to their team. All Fijian teams are deep and this one will be no exception despite the fact that only two of their players have more than 10 events under their belt. As we saw at the Coral Coast 7s they have plenty of players that can compete. The U.S. has had some limited success against Fiji in the past but will have to play a near perfect game to come out ahead this time.
England (6:24 a.m. et/3:24 a.m. pt): England have also made a few changes but still return the bulk of their team. Players like James Rodwell, Mat Turner, and Dan Norton can be a handful for opposing teams. That said, among all the "upper tier" nations the U.S. has had the most success against England and they can be a very up and down side. They finished the Gold Coast in 3rd place.
Canada (9:02 a.m. et/6:02 a.m. pt): The Eagles will have to pick up at least one win against Fiji or England if they want a chance at the Cup quarterfinals. The good news is that if they do they have a good chance of beating Canada. Canada are missing Sean Duke and Nathan Hirayama to injury. Additionally, much of their roster was on the Canada XVs team that just completed a grueling November. That means they could be pretty tired when they face the Eagles.
Keys to the Tournament:
Handling: Sevens matches are won on possession. The more you give up possession through poor handling the more likely you are to lose. Both England and Fiji will punish you if you bobble the ball. Additionally, poor handling can also lead to flat lines.
Kicking: Folau Niua will be the kicker at the tournament for the Eagles. That's a good thing as he's been very good when given the opportunity. Still, he'll need to make his conversions if the U.S. has any hope of beating Fiji or England.
Veterans: With some many young players on the roster the veterans on the team need to step up. Test has been solid so far this year but he needs to go one step further. The same goes for players like Edwards and Thompson.
Depth: When the Eagles went to three straight Plate finals last season they did so because they had depth. With key players from that run now gone they need to find new players to come in and play well.
Creativity: Niua is the only player with significant halfback experience on the team. He can't do it alone. The team will need another player to contribute. The U.S. is also often a one-dimensional team. The throw off Fiji and England they need to do something unique.
The Outlook
Realistically it looks like the Eagles are headed to the Bowl once again. Unless some of the younger players on the team turn in stellar tournaments the U.S. simply doesn't have enough depth to compete with the likes of England or Fiji. Additionally, this will be the first time that the team truly plays with only one halfback. Hawkins wants a system in which there is one creator with three players on either side. In theory that's a terrific system but it needs time to be implemented. Niua is more than capable of being that guy but if he goes down with injury the team could be in trouble.
As we said in the beginning, the new promotion/relegation structure this season has all but eliminated the relegation threat for the Eagles. In that sense Hawkins and the team and afford to experiment with the team. Several members of the team have no had the opportunity to go on tour with the Falcons and will get another chance to prove themselves. The team will give out a new batch of contracts in January so this is essentially an extended tryout. We think that most of the younger players will do enough to show themselves but it likely won't be enough to do anything more than reach the Bowl final.