One of the best elements of the IRB Sevens Series is that with back to back tournaments you often have the chance to shake off a performance with a strong performance in the second leg. That is exactly what the Eagles are hoping for this weekend in Port Elizabeth as they look to rebound from an embarrassing display last weekend in Dubai. Waiting for them in Port Elizabeth are New Zealand, Portugal, and Wales in Pool C. That is a tough ask for a team that is unchanged from last week but with the season entering a key stretch they need points now to avoid the pressure of relegation at the end of the season.
To put it in a little more perspective. The U.S. sits one point ahead of Spain, who are in the relegation spot, with four points. They are five points behind Portugal. The team with the lowest point total at the end of the season will be relegated. After Port Elizabeth there will only six tournaments left. That means there is plenty of time to pick up points but the later they leave it the riskier it becomes. That said, they must beat Portugal this weekend and they much make it into the Bowl competition.
Take the jump to read more.
The Team
As expected head coach Matt Hawkins has not made any changes from the team that competed in Dubai. At that tournament several players were either experiencing the circuit for the first time, coming back into the circuit from time away, or seeing some of their first significant minutes. The veteran core of Andrew Durutalo, Zack Test, and Folau Niua had nice weekends in Dubai. Conversely, expected contributors Brett Thompson and Nick Edwards had unexpected down weeks. If the U.S. is going to have a strong weekend they need both Thompson and Edwards back to full strength.
Where the U.S. struggled last week was in getting contributions from the rest of the players on the squad. You can't expect to be competitive on the Series with only five top players, you need double that. Some of the U.S. players have a lot of talent but still need to get in the rhythm of international play. Pat Blair, Pono Haitsuka, and Zach Mizell fall into that category. Each have a lot of talent and did some things well but they need consistency this week. With it being the second of two legs it may be a big advantage for them.
For players like Carlin Isles, Nu'u Punimata, and Miles Craigwell this could be a make or break tournament. As we've touched on before, Isles has pace but has also hit somewhat of a ceiling in terms of rugby ability. He needs to break through that ceiling to another level soon. Punimata and Craigwell are just getting back into the swing of things. Punimata is solid but also needs to take the next step. Craigwell needs to show the same assertiveness he has on the domestic scene.
We get that it's hard for players to shine against teams like New Zealand, but against Wales, Portugal, and any other team they may face in the Bowl competition players need to shine. Test, Durutalo, Thompson, and Niua have consistently done that but without the likes of Blaine Scully, Luke Hume, and Colin Hawley that has been missing this year.
Squad: Zack Test, Andrew Durutalo, Folau Niua, Brett Thompson, Nick Edwards, Carlin Isles, Nu'u Punimata, Miles Craigwell, Steve Tomasin, Zach Mizell, Pono Haitsuka, Pat Blair
The Opponents
Wales (4:22 a.m. et/1:22 a.m. pt): Wales put in an impressive performance last weekend finishing pool play undefeated and then making it to the Plate final where they lost to Argentina. James Davies made last week's Dream Team and has looked sharp. Going in the Eagles favor is the fact that Wales will be missing a few players due to injury. The U.S. has had some success against Wales before and on the right day can come out ahead, but given the two teams current form it is advantage Wales. The U.S. has yet to play Wales this year.
New Zealand (7:06 a.m. et/4:06 a.m. pt): The last time these two teams met the All Blacks came away with a 38-0 win in the Gold Coast. The All Blacks uncharacteristically suffered a big defeat last weekend that cost them a chance at the Cup but they did rebound to take third. They have not made any changes to their team. With the likes of DJ Forbes, Lote Raikabula, Tim Mikkelson, and Tomasi Cama on their roster it almost certainly be another long match for the Eagles.
Portugal (10:14 a.m. et/7:14 a.m. pt): This is a must win match for the Eagles and not just if they want to make the Cup (assuming they surprise Wales). The U.S. must win this match in order to set up a better draw on day two. Last week we saw what finishing winless in your pool can do as the Eagles then struggled against Australia in the Bowl quarterfinals. On paper the U.S. should be able to beat Portugal. The last time the two teams played the U.S. came away with a 22-0 win to take the Shield in the Gold Coast. Pedro Leal is a nice player but the U.S. should have advantages across the board.
The Keys to the Tournament
Defense: To put it kindly (yes kindly) the U.S. defense last week was a disaster. They quickly allowed their opponents to put up big scores in all but one of their matches. 7s is often a game of who scores last but if you are down early you likely can't come back.
Restarts: Without Jack Halalilo, Colin Hawley, or Blaine Scully the Eagles have become overly reliant on Zack Test to win restarts. He's done admirably but he needs help. A player like Miles Craigwell may be able to help in this category.
Discipline: The Eagles weren't disciplined at the breakdown last weekend and it cost them. Especially against France you saw opportunity after opportunity lost thanks to penalties. Possession is everything in 7s and if you give it away cheaply you are going to be punished by teams like New Zealand and Wales.
Confidence: One of the things that makes the Series so interesting to watch is the parity between teams. It doesn't take much to make up some of the gap between lower and higher teams. A lot of that comes down to confidence. The players on the team are very good players and they need to play like it. No second guessing. If you make a mistake, learn from it and move forward.
Bench: As we've touched on the U.S. lacked depth last weekend. You can't do that an expect to win matches. They need contributions from all 12 of their players.
The Outlook
We expect the Eagles to put in a better performance this weekend. Last weekend it was almost as if they got caught up too much in going through the motions and not focusing on what they needed to do to win matches. There is nothing like an embarrassing tournament to change that. The regular starters should once again by the focal points on the team but we also expect rebound performances from Thompson and Edwards. The Eagles won't beat New Zealand. However, if they play well they can surprise Wales, especially since it is the first match of the tournament for both teams. Then they would need a win over Portugal to make the Cup quarterfinals. Unfortunately that's not how we see it panning out. A win over Portugal seems likely but then the focus will be on the Bowl.
The Eagles much pick up maximum points on day two. All it will take is Spain or Portugal having a big tournament either in Port Elizabeth or somewhere else on the Series to put the Eagles in serious jeopardy. Nothing less than the Bowl semi-finals will be acceptable. Yes, the team is in a bit of a rebuilding mode but the Olympics are only getting closer. The U.S. needs results now. Plus, this could be the last opportunity for some players to audition themselves for a contract come January.
*As an aside, what a neat experience it must be for the players and staff to be in South Africa and this momentous time. They will have the privilege of honoring Nelson Mandela by playing a sport that Mandela masterfully used to help heal his country. Hopefully everyone involved cherishes the moment.